Updated: Apr 30
So, your broke buddy keeps telling you Mahomes is a lock to win the MVP next year. How about the Einsteins claiming Lamar Jackson at 6:1 odds is great value? We are here to prevent you from making these types of bad bets. Here are our picks for the 2020 NFL MVP race.
THE LONG SHOT
Josh Allen at 50: 1 ($100 bet wins $5,000)
This is a pure value move because Josh Allen and The Buffalo Bills have a legit shot at a miracle season in 2020. The G.O.A.T. has left the AFC East and the Bills are in a prime position to win the division for the first time in 24 years. Their defensive unit, which ranked 2nd in points against last year, will be elite again this year. Their offense, however, struggled last year. They only ranked 23rd in points scored and 26th in passing yards. The team somehow managed to win 10 games despite their lackluster offensive production.
We are betting that Allen and the Bill’s offense will take the next step towards becoming elite next year. Opposing defenses will have a nightmare game planning for Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, John Brown, and Devin Singletary. This could lead to huge passing numbers for Allen. Combine this with his ability to run the ball and we might be cashing in a six-figure ticket with Josh Allen’s name on it next year.
THE SQUARE, BUT NOT SO SQUARE PLAY
Tom Brady at 20:1 odds ($100 bet wins $2,000)
We know everyone and their mother will be betting Brady and the Bucs next year. We are here to tell you, this bet is NOT square. Let’s start with Brady’s new head coach. Bruce Arians runs an offense that we believe Brady will find a lot of success in. Even the old stiff Carson Palmer found success with Arians. At age 36, Palmer almost won the 2015 MVP throwing for 35 touchdowns and 4,671 yards. Arians is clearly the proven quarterback whisperer that Brady needs to revitalize his career.
Now, let’s get to Tampa Tom. It’s been a clear trend that you don’t bet against Brady, especially during years that there’s a little extra motivation. In 2007, the Patriots were busted for spy gate and Brady ended up winning the MVP that same season. In 2017, Brady won another MVP trophy after deflate gate tarnished his legacy. Now, Brady is on a f*** you tour to stick it to his old head coach, Bill Belichick.
He’ll have the perfect new offense to help him accomplish this goal. Last year, the Buccaneers managed to rank 3rd in points scored even though they were led by Jameis Winston. In 2019, Winston threw for 30 interceptions and has thrown 88 total since joining the league in 2015. By comparison, Brady has only thrown 36 interceptions during that same span. This means that Brady will be able to distribute the ball to the Buc’s offensive weapons at a much more efficient rate than Winston did. This will lead to a few more wins down the stretch and if the Bucs are able to sneak into the playoffs with a top-rated offense, then Brady might be adding a 4th MVP award to his trophy case.
Dak Prescott at 22:1 odds ($100 bet wins $2,200)
Dak Prescott is definitely our sharpest pick. The main reason behind our bet is the coaching change in Dallas. To put it simply, Jason Garrett absolutely blew and hampered the team’s success. Even with Garrett holding them back, the Cowboys offense ranked second in passing yards and sixth in points scored last year.
Dallas’s new head coach is a proven offensive mind. McCarthy helped design Green Bay’s offense in 2011 & 2014. Both of those years, the Packer’s ranked first in points scored while being led by Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers won the MVP both of those seasons. All signs point to McCarthy helping Dak rise to that same MVP level.
The Cowboys also play in a putrid division. The Giants and the Redskins had two of the worst defenses in the NFL last year. That means Dak will have at least 4 opportunities to pad his stats against last year’s 30th & 27th ranked defenses. The Cardinals and Bengals are also on their schedule. They had 28th & 25th worst defenses in 2019. Matter of fact, 13 out of the Cowboy’s 16 opponents next year ranked in the bottom half of the league for defense in 2019. Combine this with the fact that Prescott has never missed a game in his NFL career, means you can surely count on Prescott being out there all season long competing for that MVP trophy. Lock up Dak Prescott at the 22:1 odds!
*All the odds we provided in this article were provided by The Draft Kings Sports Book