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NFL Week 8 Free Pick/Analysis

Updated: Oct 30



The Steelers have won 6 in a row and will be one of the hottest public underdogs at the betting window this weekend. As of this writing, 91% of all bets are backing Pittsburg.

Their run defense ranks first in defensive DVOA and allows only 3.31 yards per carry. However, we believe they are overvalued and that it is time to sell high on the Pittsburgh Steelers.

This is a tough spot for the Steelers. This will be their second consecutive road game as they travel to Baltimore to play a well-rested Ravens team that is coming off a bye. Betting on John Harbaugh in this spot has been very profitable. After a bye week, he is 9-3 (75%) against the spread. Also, the Ravens have won their last three matchups with Pittsburgh.

The Ravens are one of the few teams that can match the Steelers on the defensive side of the ball. Baltimore ranks third in run defense DVOA and seventh in pass defense DVOA. Their defense allows the fourth fewest fantasy points to running backs and the fifth fewest to wide receivers. In contrast, the Steeler's defense has allowed the seventh most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. This highlights that the Steeler’s defense is vulnerable to the passing attack compared to the Ravens.



The Steelers just lost Devin Bush to a season ending ACL injury. He’ll be missed by Pittsburgh's defensive unit that just allowed the Titans to score at will in the second half last Sunday. Also, they have allowed 20+ points to terrible teams like the Texans, Eagles, & Broncos this season.

This line opened at -5.5 and was immediately bet down to -3.5 so the public has already created some extra value on Baltimore.

Give us THE RAVENS -3.5



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