Updated: Apr 14, 2020
Over/Under for wins: 9.0
*According to Fan Duel Sports Book
The Systematic Sports Team made thousands betting LSU in 2019. They finished the season 9-4-1 against the spread but now it’s a new year. Can the Tiger's bounce back after losing 14 starters?
Everyone wants to focus on Joe Burrow leaving but how are they going to deal with the departure of their star running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Inside the program, Edwards-Helaire was considered to be the “soul” of the 2019 offense. Before the Peach Bowl against Oklahoma, he was nursing a hamstring injury and the plan to replace him was to use 3 different running backs. This gives you an idea of what they will need to do to replace his production next year.
Joe Burrow’s replacement will be Myles Brennan. We believe he’s going to fall flat on his face and this isn’t based on his stats or previous performances. We are basing this theory on the negative effects that the departure of last year’s passing coordinator, Joe Brady, will bring. For example, in 2018 the Tiger’s offense averaged only 32.4 points per game. Then Joe Brady arrived for the 2019 season and the offense's points per game increased to 48.4. If you need further proof of Brady's key role in LSU's success, turn to Myles Brennan’s own words. Last year, the Tiger's future quarterback said,
“He’s brought the offense and our guys have bought in, and as a quarterback, if you don’t like playing in this offense then you’re in the wrong place. That’s what’s given us the extra leap this year.”
These words help shed light on the fact that Brady was actually the mastermind behind the historic 2019 offense. Without his game planning, we doubt the offense can function at a high level like it did last year.
It also doesn’t help that LSU has a daunting schedule for 2020. They have to travel to Auburn, Texas A&M, and Florida. We believe they will lose all 3 of these games which means they would have to remain perfect at home just to get to 9 wins. This will be nearly impossible as Alabama will pay a visit to Death Valley in November. Not to mention, the Tigers could be on upset alert during their home matchup with Texas in September.
When you combine the tough scheduling with unprecedented turnover and no offseason practices due to COVID-19, it's easy to arrive at our final conclusion:
UNDER 9 WINS (+106)
*$100 bet wins $106
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